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costsofsprawl3 New England Climate Coalition

1
G
ETTING

ON
T
RACK
New Englands Rising Global Warming Emissions
and How to Reverse the Trend
NEW ENGLAND CLIMATE COALITION
February 2005
Written By Dave Algoso and Michael Goggin
State Public Interest Research Groups (PIRGs)
for the New England Climate Coalition
With Contributions From:
Clean Water Fund
ConnPIRG Education Fund
Environment Maine Research & Policy Center
MASSPIRG Education Fund
Natural Resources Council of Maine
NHPIRG Education Fund
RIPIRG Education Fund
Vermont Public Interest Research & Education Fund 2


Getting On Track
A
CKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors thank Tony Dutzik of the State PIRGs for his guidance in crafting this project, and his
editorial review. Thanks also to Rob Sargent of the State PIRGs and Frank Gorke of MASSPIRG Educa-
tion Fund for their editorial review, and to all members of the New England Climate Coalition for their
feedback.
The New England Climate Coalition thanks the Jessie B. Cox Charitable Trust, the Energy Foundation,
the John Merck Fund, and the Pew Charitable Trusts for their generous financial support of this project.
The authors alone bear responsibility for any factual errors. The recommendations are those of the State
PIRG Education Funds, the Clean Water Fund, the Environment Maine Research & Policy Center, and
the Natural Resources Council of Maine. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or those who provided editorial review.
© 2005 State PIRG Education Funds
For additional copies of this report, send $20 (including shipping) to:
New England Climate Coalition
c/o Center for Public Interest Research
44 Winter Street
Boston, MA 02108
Photo Credit: (bottom right) New England from space from NASAs Visible Earth collection at
www.visibleearth.nasa.gov.
Design and Layout: Kathleen Krushas, To the Point Publications New England Climate Coalition

3
T
ABLE

OF
C
ONTENTS
E
XECUTIVE
S
UMMARY
............................................................................................................. 4
I
NTRODUCTION
..................................................................................................................... 6
C
ARBON
D
IOXIDE
E
MISSIONS

IN
N
EW
E
NGLAND
...................................................................... 7
Emissions through 2001 ..................................................................................................... 7
Emissions since 2001 ........................................................................................................ 10
Lessons from the Trends .................................................................................................... 16
P
ROGRESS
M
ADE

AND
N
EXT
S
TEPS
........................................................................................ 17
Connecticut ...................................................................................................................... 17
Maine ............................................................................................................................... 19
Massachusetts ................................................................................................................... 19
New Hampshire ................................................................................................................ 20
Rhode Island..................................................................................................................... 21
Vermont ........................................................................................................................... 21
C
ONCLUSION
....................................................................................................................... 23
M
ETHODOLOGY
................................................................................................................... 24
E
NDNOTES
.......................................................................................................................... 26 4


Getting On Track
M
ore than three years after the regions gov-
ernors adopted a landmark agreement to
reduce New Englands contribution to
global warming, emissions of the leading global warm-
ing gas carbon dioxide continue to increase in the
region. While many of the New England states have
taken positive steps to limit global warming emissions,
the most recent trends in energy use and emissions
suggest the region has much more to do.
New Englands emissions of carbon dioxide, the
leading global warming gas, declined slightly be-
tween 2000 and 2001, but more recent trends in
energy consumption suggest that carbon dioxide
emissions have risen since then.
Carbon dioxide emissions in New England in 2001
(the last year for which full data are available) were
0.6 percent below 2000 emission levels. However, the
decline was likely due to that years economic reces-
sion and not to any permanent shift in energy use
patterns in the region. In addition, the decline expe-
rienced in New England was smaller than the rate of
decline in the United States as a whole (1.1 percent).
New England is consuming more of the fossil fuels
that represent the bulk of the regions contribution to
global warming. In the most recent 12 months for
which data were available, fossil fuel consumption in
the region had increased from 2001 levels in six of
seven categories studied. (See Table 1.) Because car-
bon dioxide emissions are directly related to fuel con-
sumption, this suggests that the region has increased
its overall global warming emissions since 2001.
Among the seven categories of fossil fuel use addressed
here, the most significant trends are the continued
increase in emissions in the transportation sector (pri-
marily from cars, light trucks and SUVs) and the in-
crease in fuel consumption for electric power
generation.
Given the recent increases in emissions, the region
will need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions signifi-
cantly over the next five years to meet the regional
goal of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2010.
Several New England states have adopted strong
policies and approaches to reduce global warming
emissions, but serious shortcomings remain.
State global warming plans: Since 2001, four of
the six New England states have developed or
adopted plans to reduce global warming emissions
(Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode
Island) and two states have formally adopted the
regional goals through legislation (Maine and Con-
necticut). However, two states, New Hampshire
and Vermont, have not yet developed comprehen-
sive plans for reducing emissions.
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI): Rep-
resentatives of New England and other Northeast-
ern states have been meeting in an effort to develop
E
E
E
E
E
XECUTIVE
XECUTIVE
XECUTIVE
XECUTIVE
XECUTIVE
S
S
S
S
S
UMMARY
UMMARY
UMMARY
UMMARY
UMMARY
Table 1. Consumption of New Englands Major CO

Sources Is Rising
Change in Fuel
Major Sources of Emissions
2001 Emissions
Consumption from
(MMTCE)
2001 to 2003-04
Transportation: Gasoline
14.73
8.6%
Residential Heating: Oil
1
6.16
3.0%
Electric Power: Coal
4.98
1.7%
Electric Power: Natural Gas
4.00
26.2%
Electric Power: Petroleum
3.35
-23.7%
Transportation: Diesel
2
3.11
39.7%
Residential Heating: Natural Gas
2.64
12.1%
2 New England Climate Coalition

5
a cap-and-trade program to limit global warming
emissions from the electric power sector. The
RGGI effort holds the potential to help the region
attain its goals but only if it includes a strong
carbon cap that drives significant reductions in
emissions from power generators within the region.
Transportation: In the last year, three more New
England states have moved toward full adoption
of Californias vehicle emission standards. As a re-
sult of the advanced technology requirement in the
new standards, they will likely result in modest
reductions in global warming emissions and will
set the stage for adoption of Californias forthcom-
ing standards for global warming emissions. How-
ever, no state has yet launched a coherent strategy
to reduce the growth in vehicle travel, which is a
primary cause of increasing emissions from cars
and light trucks.
The New England states should prioritize the fol-
lowing steps in the year ahead:
1) Achieving a strong carbon cap within the
RGGI process that will guarantee emission re-
ductions of at least 10 percent below current
levels by 2010 and 25 percent below current
levels by 2020.
2) Adopting Californias standards for vehicle glo-
bal warming emissions once they are finalized.
3) Developing a coherent strategy to reduce
growth in vehicl