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auto newsletter 9-06 Office of the New York City Comptroller
William C. Thompson, Jr.,Comptroller
Office of Policy Management
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
(212) 669-3500
December 2007
Grounded:
www.comptroller.nyc.gov
and
The Impact of Mounting Flight Delays on
New York City s Economy
Environment policy report
www.comptroller.nyc.gov
December 2007
Contents
Key Findings
Key Recommendations
A. Schedule Adherence Has Decreased More in New York Than Elsewhere
On-time performance has worsened most in New York. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
B. Why Airline On-Time Performance Has Declined
An antiquated air traffic control system and outmoded flight paths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Poor labor relations and too few air traffic controllers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Over-scheduling at flights at peak times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . 11
General aviation crowds the sky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Greater use of smaller aircraft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Weak FAA leadership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
C. Deteriorating Airline On-Time Performance and the New York City
Business Climate
On-time performance influences corporate location decision-making. . . . . . . . . . . .14
Flight delays in New York are financially costly.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Flight delays also affect air cargo operations.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
D. More Flights and Longer Delays = More Pollution at the Airports
Environmental impact of New York airports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Non-aircraft engine sources of airport air pollution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Effects of airport pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
E. Modernization Efforts Will Not Necessarily Accommodate Short-Term
Demands
Air traffic control system modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Flight path modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Improvements versus soaring demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Recommendations
Modernization, better management, and fair allocation of costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Congestion pricing and caps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Additional measures to reduce airport air pollution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
Conclusion
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
Appendixes
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
William C. Thompson, Jr.
Gayle M. Horwitz
Danica Gallagher
Comptroller
First Deputy Comptroller
Assistant Comptroller for
Policy & Communications
Glenn von Nostitz
Steve Strauss
Joan Westmeyer
Director, Office of
Transportation Policy Analyst,
Policy Liaison,
Policy Management
Office of Policy Management
Office of Policy Management policy report
www.comptroller.nyc.gov
December 2007
Over the last year, airline on-time performance across the nation has sunk to nearly unprecedented
poor levels. Congress recently held hearings on what is widely viewed as an aviation crisis and President
Bush has promised help to remedy the nations worsening flight delays in addition to temporary actions to
avoid severe disruptions at the New York airports implemented during the recent Thanksgiving holiday.
The Office of the Comptroller has attempted to identify key causes of the deterioration in on-time
performance and its impact on local air and water quality and New York Citys economic competitiveness.
This analysis has included assessment of trends in recent years in the numbers of scheduled flights and
passengers, departure and arrivals delays, cancellations, and taxi-out times at the three major airports serving
New York City and interviews with experts in aviation management and air traffic control.
Key Findings
On-time performance has decreased and taxi-out times have increased much faster in New York than they
have nationally. New Yorks flight cancellation rates are among the highest in the nation.
Airline on-time performance at the major New York airports has plummeted, and according to
an analysis by the Office of the Comptroller, the decrease has been much greater than in other
cities. Over the last five years2003 to 2007on-time arrival rates at the three major New York
City airports for the first nine months of the year plunged from an average of 77 percent, which was
five percentage points below the national average of 82 percent, to 60 percent of scheduled flights, or
13 percentage points below the national average of 73 percent. New York on-time departure rates
also plunged and the decrease was significantly greater in New York than elsewhere.
The average taxi-outthe period between gate departure and wheels uphas increased
more in New York than elsewhere. For the first nine months of 2007, the average taxi-out time was
36 minutes at John F. Kennedy International Airport, 29 minutes at Newark Liberty International
Airport, and 28 minutes at LaGuardia Airport. The national average was 16 minutes. Since 2003, the
average taxi-out has increased by 14 minutes at Kennedy, four minutes at LaGuardia, and five minutes
at Newark compared to an increase of 1.3 minutes nationally.
New York airports have among the nations highest flight cancellation rates. From August 2006
to July 2007, 4.8 percent of U.S. carriers flights at LaGuardia were cancelled, the nations highest
rate, 3.6 percent were cancelled at Newark, the nations third highest rate, and 3.2 percent were
cancelled at Kennedy, the sixth highest rate. The national cancellation rate was 2.2 percent.
An antiquated air traffic control system, poor management by the Federal Aviation Administration, and
overcrowding in the airspace which is compounded by added flights at peak hours, are leading causes of
delays
.
Between 2000 and 2006, the number of passenger aircraft take-offs and landings at the three major
New York City airports increased by 6.7 percent overall1.6 percent at Newark, 5.8 percent at LaGuardia
Airport, and 14.4 percent at Kennedy Airport. Congress removed capacity restrictions at Kennedy Airport
at the end of December 2006 and for the first eight months of 2007 scheduled flights increased by 23.5
percent above the same period the year before. The fact that on-time performance has also declined
markedly at Newark and LaGuardia, where the total number of flights increased only modestly, suggests
that factors other than increasing numbers of flights are causing on-time performance to slide. Among
these are:
1 policy report
www.comptroller.nyc.gov
December 2007
The failure of the FAA to modernize the air traffic control system. For decades, the FAA has been
planning to replace the nations outmoded, radar-based air traffic control system.
Insufficient air traffic controller staffing in New York, high controller retirement rates, and the
lack of a current labor agreement. These are leading to poor employee morale and contributing to
poor on-time performance.
Airlines increasing utilization of each aircraft. With airlines flying each plane more hours a day
and with less buffer time between flights, flight delays earlier in the day are having a ripple effect and
causing subsequent flights with the same aircraft also to be late. The share of total minutes of flight
delay attributable to aircraft arriving latedefined by the U.S. Department of Transportation as,
A previous flight with the same aircraft arrived late, causing the present flight to depart latehas
risen steadily from 30.9 percent in 2003 to 38.2 percent in the first half of 2007.
The large volume of private aircraft (general aviation) planes using New Yorks airspace
.
It
is estimated that general aviation aircraft comprise approximately 30 percent of the air traffic in the
New York-Philadelphia air space. Teterboro Airport, which serves only general aviation, had as many
take-offs and landings in 2006 as Delta Airlines did at all three major New York airports. Each
private jet is another blip on controllers radar screens to track in the extremely congested New
York air space.
New Yorks economic competitiveness may be harmed unless on-time performance improves.
Unless it is reversed,