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Southeastern Infrastructure Assessment Southeastern Infrastructure Assessment
Prepared by:
The Southeastern Association of Regulatory Commissioners
May 8, 2002 Table of Contents
I.
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II.
Assessment of Generation Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
III.
Assessment of Transmission Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
IV.
Roles of State Commissions and Agencies with Regard to
Planning and Siting of Generation and Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
V.
Southeast RTO/Wholesale Market Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1
I.
Executive Summary
Across the nation, State regulatory agencies are deliberating issues regarding the
formation of Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs). As a foundation for any
discussion, one must first understand the underlying system before any changes are made
in order to preserve the existing level of reliability. As the President of the Southeastern
Association of Regulatory Commissioners (SEARUC), Chairman Jacobs of the Florida
Public Service Commission initiated an assessment of the electric infrastructure in the
Southeastern region on October 9, 2001. The current President of SEARUC,
Commissioner Baez from the Florida Public Service Commission, has orchestrated the
continuation of the Southeastern Infrastructure Assessment (Assessment) which required
the cooperation and coordination of several state public service commissions staff, utility
representatives, and regional reliability councils. Sections I and II of the Assessment
provides an inventory of existing facilities and a projection of additional generation and
transmission facilities on a comparable basis. Sections III and IV of the Assessment
provide a summary of individual states planning and siting processes and current state
public service commission activities regarding the development of Regional Transmission
Organizations (RTOs). In this manner, the Assessment provides a useful foundation for
any discussion regarding the future development of an RTO.
The data relied upon for the Assessment was gathered through responses to survey
questions to individual state commissions and utilities, web sites, and other publicly
available forms of information. Much of the data requested, such as transmission line
loading relief (TLR) occurrences or transmission transfer capabilities, is only accumulated
on a control area (or system) basis. Therefore, it became apparent that the least common
denominator for data presentation would be at the Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
(SERC) and Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC) level. Because of the
cooperation of the SERC, FRCC, and state commission staff, the data was made available
in a timely fashion. Generation and transmission data for Kentucky was not requested
since Kentucky is a member of the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement
(ECAR).
In summary, the Assessment indicates that the southeastern states have adequate
infrastructure in place to accommodate modest changes in the wholesale market. The bulk
of the existing generation fleet is comprised of low cost coal and nuclear units. Planned
additions are predominately natural gas-fired combined cycle and combustion turbine units,
much like the rest of the country. Summer generation reserve margins for 2001 range from
8% in the SERC/Entergy subregion to 21% in the FRCC region. The SERC/Entergy reserve
margin does not include announced merchant capacity. Tie line capabilities appear
adequate in most regions as evidenced by the low number of TLR events. However, a
rapid influx of non-utility generation may require significant upgrades to the transmission
system, particularly in the Entergy and Southern subregions of the SERC. A key issue
facing regulators is whether retail customers should pay for these transmission
enhancements. The integration of these new units will require close coordination among
the utilities and associated reliability councils. Most states have a process in place to
monitor and react to utility plans for generation and transmission additions. In addition, it
appears that adequate generation and transmission facilities are currently being planned
in order to maintain reliable service to end-use customers. 2
TABLE 1. SOUTHEAST REGION
EXISTING SUMMER CAPACITY BY FUEL TYPE
UNIT TYPE
SERC Region
FRCC Region
SOUTHEAST Region
(SERC + FRCC)
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
Nuclear
31,328
18.3%
3,898
9.5%
35,226
16.6%
Hydroelectric
12,529
7.3%
11
0.0%
12,540
5.9%
Pumped Storage
6,219
3.6%
0
0.0%
6,219
2.9%
Coal
70,662
41.3%
10,265
25.0%
80,927
38.1%
Fossil Steam
17,531
10.2%
12,055
29.4%
29,586
13.9%
Combustion Turbine
18,516
10.8%
6,080
14.8%
24,596
11.6%
Combined Cycle
4,876
2.8%
4,067
9.9%
8,943
4.2%
Other
4,105
2.4%
2,851
6.9%
6,956
3.3%
Net Firm Capacity Interchange
5,399
3.2%
1,845
4.5%
7,244
3.4%
TOTAL
171,165
100.0%
41,072
100.0%
212,237
100.0%
SOURCES: SERC Response to 1/31/2002 FPSC Data Request; SERC 2001 EIA 411
FRCC 2001
Regional Load and Resource Plan
II.
Assessment of Generation Infrastructure
EXISTING CAPACITY MIX
The Southeast Region comprising the SERC and FRCC regions currently has
a combined summer capacity of over 212,000 MW. The vast majority of this capacity is
located in the SERC region. As shown in Table 1, the largest component of the Southeast
Regions capacity is coal-fired. For the SERC Region, coal and nuclear generation provide
the bulk of the capacity. For the FRCC Region, over half of the existing capacity is
comprised of fossil steam and coal.
Table 2, on the next page, breaks down the SERC Regions existing capacity by fuel
type for each of the four SERC subregions. This table illustrates that the SERC/VACAR
subregion is the largest of the SERC subregions, with an existing capacity of over 62,000
MW. 3
TABLE 2. SERC SUBREGIONS
EXISTING SUMMER CAPACITY BY FUEL TYPE
UNIT TYPE
SERC/Entergy
SERC/Southern
SERC/TVA
SERC/VACAR
SERC Region TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
Nuclear
4,643
16.8%
5,724
11.9%
6,668
20.2%
14,293
22.9%
31,328
18.3%
Hydroelectric
70
0.3%
3,938
8.2%
4,875
14.8%
3,646
5.8%
12,529
7.3%
Pumped Storage
0
0.0%
1,146
2.4%
1,578
4.8%
3,495
5.6%
6,219
3.6%
Coal
6,188
22.3%
24,844
51.7%
15,367
46.7%
24,263
38.9%
70,662
41.3%
Fossil Steam
14,388
51.9%
1,304
2.7%
0
0.0%
1,839
2.9%
17,531
10.2%
Combustion Turbine
858
3.1%
5,950
12.4%
3,203
9.7%
8,505
13.6%
18,516
10.8%
Combined Cycle
895
3.2%
3,041
6.3%
0
0.0%
940
1.5%
4,876
2.8%
Other
0
0.0%
2
0.0%
1
0.0%
4,102
6.6%
4,105
2.4%
Net Firm Capacity Interchange
670
2.4%
2,119
4.4%
1,246
3.8%
1,364
2.2%
5,399
3.2%
TOTAL
27,712
100.0%
48,068
100.0%
32,938
100.0%
62,447
100.0%
171,165
100.0%
SOURCE: SERC Response to 1/31/2002 FPSC Data Request 4
TABLE 3. SOUTHEAST REGION
PLANNED ADDITIONS / (REDUCTIONS) TO SUMMER CAPACITY BY FUEL TYPE
UNIT TYPE
SERC Region
FRCC Region
SOUTHEAST Region
(SERC + FRCC)
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
MW
% OF
TOTAL
Nuclear
(238)
-0.6%
0
0.0%
(238)
-0.4%
Hydroelectric
516
1.3%
0
0.0%
516
1.0%
Pumped Storage
186
0.5%
0
0.0%
186
0.3%
Coal
(1,391)
-3.5%
(314)
-2.2%
(1,705)
-3.2%
Fossil Steam
(265)
-0.7%
(413)
-2.9%
(678)
-1.3%
Combustion Turbine
12,109
30.6%
2,633
18.7%
14,742
27.5%
Combined Cycle
17,929
45.3%
13,482
95.8%
31,411
58.5%
Other
8,779
22.2%
(851)
-6.0%
7,928
14.8%
Net Firm Capacity Interchange
1,991
5.0%
(469)
-3.3%
1,522
2.8%
TOTAL
39,616
100.0%
14,068
100.0%
53,684
100.0%
SOURCES: SERC Response to 1/31/2002 FPSC Data Request
FRCC 2001
Regional Load and Resource Plan
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITIONS
As shown in Table 3, below, electric utilities in the Southeast Region forecast an
addition of over 53,000 MW of new capacity by the year 2010. The majority of these
additions (over 39,000 MW) are forecast for the SERC Region. Most of this new capacity
is expected to come from combined cycle and combustion turbine units.
Nearly all of the 14,000 MW of the FRCC Regions planned capacity additions are
expected to come from combined cycle and combustion turbine units. An estimated 8,000
MW of additional merchant generation has been announced as of August, 2001. Nearly
all announced merchant capacity in the FRCC is forecasted to be completed between 2002
and 2005. This capacity is not included in Table 3 because it has not yet been committed
to serve retail load in the FRCC region.
According to the North American Electric Reliability Councils
2001 Summer
Assessment
, a substantial amount of merchant capacity has been announced for the SERC
Region. For example, approximately 16,000 MW of merchant generation either exists or
is planned in the State of Mississippi. This generation is not included in Table 3.
Table 4, on the next page, breaks down the SERC Regions net planned capacity
additions by fuel type for each of the four SERC subregions. Among the four SERC
subregions, SERC/Southern is forecasted to