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Seeking a formula for co­existence SPECIAL REPORT
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Tuesday December 11 2007
www.ft.com/bosniaherz2007
Seeking a formula for co­existence
B
osnia and Herze-
govina held no offi-
cial commemoration
on November 21,
the 12th anniversary of the
Dayton accords, the historic
peace treaty that ended the
1992-1995 war.
The anniversary took a
back seat to the countrys
worst post-war political cri-
sis, as Bosnian Serb parlia-
mentarians threatened to
derail the weak central state,
rather than consent to proce-
dural changes by Miroslav
Lajcak, the international
high representative,
to
speed up decision-making
and
European
Union-
oriented reforms.
Even with the richly sym-
bolic initialling of a long-
delayed EU pre-accession
agreement on December 4,
t h e c o m p l i c a t e d D a y t o n
ceasefire terms have started
to look more like a hin-
drance than a help for an
aspiring EU member state,
many observers say.
But there is another rea-
son
why
November
21
passed without fanfare in
the capital, Sarajevo. The
multi-ethnic central govern-
ment has never been able to
agree on shared national hol-
idays one of the commu-
nist-era
traditions
that
lapsed when the former
Yugoslavia broke apart.
Bosniaks, as Bosnian Mus-
lims are now widely known,
are happy enough to cele-
brate the central state of
B o s n i a - H e r z e g o v i n a ,
although the normalisa-
tion they hoped for after
the
Dayton
treaty
has
proved maddeningly elusive.
Croats and Serbs, the coun-
trys other two constituent
peoples, continue to shelter
themselves against Bosniak
numerical
domination
through ethnically-based
safeguards.
The treaty left the state
divided into two separate
entities roughly equal in
size: one is the complex Fed-
eration consisting of Bosniak
and Croat-dominated can-
tons; the other the often dis-
contented Republika Srpska
(Serb Republic, or RS).
Ironically, then, Dayton
D a y w a s m a r k e d w i t h
greater vigour this Novem-
ber in Banja Luka, the Serb-
entitys main administrative
centre.
Officials marked the peace
anniversary by inaugurating
the shiny new 17-storey RS
government headquarters,
completed at a cost of nearly
100m over three years.
Vojislav Kostunica, prime
minister of neighbouring
Serbia, showed up to con-
gratulate the entity, saying
the building shows the
progress of the RS over the
12 years since the war.
The building certainly sig-
nifies permanence. It could
also be taken as a statement
of Bosnian Serb readiness
for independence, in case
Bosnia-Herzegovina fails to
find a workable formula for
co-existence in the years
ahead.
The high representative,
whose purpose is to imple-
ment the Dayton agreement,
admits that the divided
s o u t h - e a s t e r n E u r o p e a n
state is still a long way from
reaching a normal, more
functional, constitutional
consensus.
There is no agreement
among leaders among the
three constituent nations on
how they want the state to
be, Mr Lajcak admits. All
views are legitimate by
themselves, but not compati-
ble.
With very few exceptions,
Serbs say they would reject
Bosnia-Herzegovina unless
they can keep a separate
Serb-majority unit within it,
so as to avoid being out-
voted by Bosniaks, the larg-
est ethno-religious group in
the country as a whole.
Serbs, however, are not
the only group motivated by
fear of their fellow citizens.
The two-entity structure of
the state is the legacy of
wartime genocide against
the Muslim population, says
Haris Silajdzic, the Bosniak
m e m b e r o f t h e r o t a t i n g
three-member presidency.
Moreover, the autonomy of
the Serb-dominated entity,
always connotes the possi-
bility of secession, he says.
Western diplomats, while
seeing a stronger central
state as preferable, dislike
being drawn into partisan
debates. We are doing Haris
Silajdzics dirty work for
him in building up institu-
tions, says one senior west-
ern diplomat in Sarajevo.
Since
the
ethnically
charged campaigning for
parliamentary elections late
last year, Mr Silajdzic has
engaged in a regular series
of High Noons, as another
western
diplomat
has
described them, against his
primary rival, the Bosnian
Serb leader, Milorad Dodik.
Mr Dodik is the prime minis-
ter of the Serb entity, but his
party is also the single most
powerful in the country,
with roughly 18 per cent
support overall, the latest
polls show. He and Mr Sila-
jdzic both gained parliamen-
tary seats by drawing ethnic
lines in the sand.
Yet the two of them also,
from time to time, agree.
Both say that signing the EU
Stabilisation and Associa-
tion
Agreement
(SAA),
would create a more con-
structive atmosphere for bar-
gaining over the countrys
internal future.
The December 4 initialling
ceremony gave politicians
from all six main parties
something positive to show
their respective constituen-
cies, while deferring the
toughest question on police
reform whether to keep a
separate RS police force
until the later phase of
renewed constitutional dis-
cussions.
From the wider western
strategic perspective, the
constant RS threat of seces-
sion appears neutralised for
now, regardless of any theo-
retical comparisons with
Kosovo, the UN-adminis-
tered ethnic Albanian-domi-
nated breakaway province
pushing for independence
from Serbia by early next
year. US and EU political
advisers on the Balkans,
who support Kosovos inde-
pendence, say Mr Lajcaks
controversial measures were
partly aimed at bullet-proof-
ing Bosnia against regional
instability.
Mr Dodik dismisses any
notion of a slide back to vio-
lence. EU military command-
ers share his view, saying
the current level of 2,500
peacekeeping troops, plus at
least as many over the hori-
zon strategic reserves, is
enough to deal with the
remaining risks.
Hans-Jochen Witthauer,
the German Rear-Admiral
who has just completed his
year-long
command
of
EUFor, the multinational EU
force, says: This has been
the quietest year in Bosnia-
Herzegovina since 1995 in
terms of politically moti-
vated incidents. The last
political crisis did not result
in any violence.
The Dayton agreement has
proved to be an extremely
durable ceasefire. The prob-
lem is its lack of efficiency
as a constitution. The result-
ing state includes multiple
duplicated government min-
istries, with not just the two
entities, but each of the Fed-
erations 10 cantons and
sometimes ethnically mixed
municipalities practising
local micro-management.
The RS, by contrast, has one
fewer layer of government,
an advantage Mr Dodik has
used to achieve faster eco-
nomic reforms in the past
two years.
Economic reforms have
also proceeded at central-
state level, with the Serbs
showing some grudging flex-
ibility about ceding the RSs
powers to achieve common
financial gains. The value
added tax (VAT) adopted
two years ago shows that
economic advances need not
wait for a total constitu-
tional overhaul, says Adnan
Terzic, the Bosniak former
prime minister whose gov-
ernment passed the central-
ised tax.
But Mr Terzic, now an
adviser to the central-state
investment bank, also urges
the main parties to return to
the negotiating table. Con-
stitutional reforms are tough
in every country, he says.
Without compromise by all
sides, we can have no SAA.
Mr Terzic last year lauded
all of the main parties for
their concessions over the
April package, the US-bro-
kered constitutional package
that almost passed a year
and a half ago, until Mr Sila-
jdzic rejected its continua-
tion of ethnic barriers.
Even the more practically-
minded Mr Terzic admits:
Problems with differing
economic policies will exist
a s l o n g a s t w o e n t i t i e s
exist.
Serbs say the problem is
the Office of the High Repre-
sentative (OHR), which pre-
vents local parties from tack-
ling tough questions about
the future. Six high repre-
sentatives have imposed
more than 820 laws and
decrees in 12 years, Mr
Dodik says. The Bosnian
Serb leader also blamed Mr
Lajcak for the recent politi-
cal crisis, which caused the
fast-growing
stock
exchanges in both Sarajevo
and Banja Luka to falter.
When the high represent-
ative is responsible for stock
market failure hes not held
accountable, thats reserved
for local polticians, Mr
Dodik says.
Yet business can some-
times overcome ethnic and
political differences. Fahru-
din Radoncic, publisher of
Sarajevos Avaz newspa-
pers, has embarked on an
ambitious retail venture
with Serbias Delta. The Bos-
niak business leader says he
has no reservations about
teaming up with Miroslav
Miskovic, the Serb business-
man, to build shopping cen-
tres in Federation parts of
the country.
But Avaz group is a rare
example of success, he says.
The general situation is
very bad, especially in the
Federation.
Country-wide unemploy-
Economic pressures
are giving leaders
reason to work
together, reports
Neil MacDonald
Up in arms: Bosnian Serbs protest in October at EU plans for closer integration, but threats of secession by Republika Srpska have faded
Getty Images
Problems with
differing economic
policies will exist
as long as two
entities exist
Inside this issue
Politics Miroslav Lajcak,
the new high representative,
has faced some
harsh realities, writes
Neil MacDonald Page 2
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