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Bus Rapid Transit for the Dulles Corridor Alternative Fuels in
Alternative Fuels in
the United States:
the United States:
Status and Outlook
Status and Outlook
Alternative Transport Energies Conference
Perth, Western Australia
September 12, 2006
Lisa Callaghan
Lisa Callaghan
Breakthrough Technologies Institute
Breakthrough Technologies Institute
Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C. Who We Are
Who We Are
Breakthrough Technologies Institute
Breakthrough Technologies Institute
US non
US non
-
-
profit founded 1993
profit founded 1993
Provide a voice for environmental technologies
Provide a voice for environmental technologies
in public policy debates
in public policy debates
Program areas:
Program areas:
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Bus Rapid Transit
Bus Rapid Transit
Air Quality/Climate Change, esp.
Air Quality/Climate Change, esp.
Transportation
Transportation
www.gobrt.org
www.gobrt.org
and
and
www.fuelcells.org
www.fuelcells.org Presentation Overview
Presentation Overview
US travel profile and trends
US travel profile and trends
Highlights of US alternative fuel vehicle
Highlights of US alternative fuel vehicle
market and government drivers
market and government drivers
Passenger vehicles
Passenger vehicles
Public transit
Public transit
What
What
s ahead
s ahead US Travel Trends: How Are We Doing?
US Travel Trends: How Are We Doing?
The United States is a car culture
The United States is a car culture US Travel: The Culture of Cars
US Travel: The Culture of Cars
US Mode Share, All Trips
86.6
1.5
8.6
1.7 1.7
Personal Vehicle
Public Transit
Walking
School Bus
Other
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Survey 2001 US Travel: Commuting
US Travel: Commuting
US Mode Share, Commute Trips
91.2
4.9
2.8 1.1
Personal Vehicle
Public Transit
Walking
Other
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Survey 2001 US Travel Trends
US Travel Trends
Trend toward
Trend toward
greater car use
greater car use
has been
has been
consistent over
consistent over
the last 40 years
the last 40 years
Source: US Department of
Transportation, Census
Transportation Planning
Package (2002) Decline in US Transit Work
Commute Share, 1960-2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percentage of
Total Work
Trips
Source: US Department of Transportation, Census Transportation Planning Package (2002)
US Travel Trends:
US Travel Trends:
Commuting
Commuting US Travel Trends: Major Cities
US Travel Trends: Major Cities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
NY LA Chi DC SF Phil Bos Sea Por
Percent of Workers Using Transit
1980-2000
1980
2000 Causes of the Car Culture?
Causes of the Car Culture?
Low gas prices
Land Use
Highway construction Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2001
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2001
US Travel: Consequences
US Travel: Consequences
Oil Consumption (millions bbl per day)
Oil Consumption (millions bbl per day) US Travel: Consequences
US Travel: Consequences
CO
CO
2
2
Emissions
Emissions
Source: EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States,
Source: EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States,
2004
2004 Alternative Fuel Vehicle
Alternative Fuel Vehicle
Market Trends
Market Trends
Americans like
Americans like
high
high
-
-
tech
tech
solutions
solutions
See it as
See it as
painless
painless
solution
solution
Don
Don
t want to change driving habits
t want to change driving habits
However
However
little real demand for AFVs at this time
little real demand for AFVs at this time
Why?
Why?
Gas prices still low by world standards
Gas prices still low by world standards
Low demand for efficient ICEs
Low demand for efficient ICEs
Price premiums for AFVs
Price premiums for AFVs Government Actions That Spur
Government Actions That Spur
AFV Market: Regulatory
AFV Market: Regulatory
Vehicle emissions regulations:
Vehicle emissions regulations:
Auto regs tightened, stringent heavy duty
Auto regs tightened, stringent heavy duty
diesel regs in 2007, new regs for off
diesel regs in 2007, new regs for off
-
-
road
road
Air quality compliance regulations
Air quality compliance regulations
Little political appetite for fuel economy
Little political appetite for fuel economy
increases, even less for higher gas tax
increases, even less for higher gas tax
No GHG regulations
No GHG regulations
States are taking action where feds won
States are taking action where feds won
t
t Government Actions That Spur
Government Actions That Spur
AFV Market: Non
AFV Market: Non
-
-
Regulatory
Regulatory
Politicians also favor technology solutions
Politicians also favor technology solutions
Funding: R&D, demos
Funding: R&D, demos
Tax incentives for vehicles, infrastructure
Tax incentives for vehicles, infrastructure
Vehicle purchase requirements
Vehicle purchase requirements
mixed
mixed
success
success
But
But
--
--
Federal funding can be inconsistent &
Federal funding can be inconsistent &
quixotic
quixotic
Does
Does
carrot
carrot
work without
work without
stick
stick
?
? Technology and Fuel Options
Technology and Fuel Options
Alternative fuels like CNG, propane
Alternative fuels like CNG, propane
Biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel
Biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel
Electric drive vehicles
Electric drive vehicles
Battery, ICE
Battery, ICE
-
-
hybrid, plug
hybrid, plug
-
-
in hybrid, fuel cells
in hybrid, fuel cells
Fuel cells are the ultimate answer
Fuel cells are the ultimate answer Why Fuel Cells?
Why Fuel Cells?
No tailpipe emissions
No tailpipe emissions
High efficiency
High efficiency
Fuel source diversity
Fuel source diversity
No deterioration of
No deterioration of
emissions controls
emissions controls
Quiet operation, limited
Quiet operation, limited
maintenance
maintenance
Greatest combination of benefits:
Greatest combination of benefits: Passenger Vehicle Market
Passenger Vehicle Market
Biggest story is hybrid technology
Biggest story is hybrid technology
Ethanol is gaining new political attention
Ethanol is gaining new political attention
CNG is on the wane
CNG is on the wane
Alt Fuel Vehicles Made Available in
Alt Fuel Vehicles Made Available in
the US in 2005
the US in 2005
Ethanol (Flex Fuel)
Ethanol (Flex Fuel)
735,693
735,693
Gasoline
Gasoline
-
-
Hybrid
Hybrid
139,489
139,489
CNG
CNG
1,922
1,922
Source: US Energy Information Administration Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles
Once was main clean fuel vehicle option
Once was main clean fuel vehicle option
In 2005, there were 130,000 light duty
In 2005, there were 130,000 light duty
NGVs in US
NGVs in US
Primarily fleet vehicles: taxis, government,
Primarily fleet vehicles: taxis, government,
police, commercial
police, commercial
Promoted by government policies
Promoted by government policies
Purchase requirements for public fleets
Purchase requirements for public fleets
Tax incentives for vehicles, infrastructure
Tax incentives for vehicles, infrastructure CNG Passenger Vehicle
CNG Passenger Vehicle
Market Outlook
Market Outlook
In 2006, only Honda Civic CNG available
In 2006, only Honda Civic CNG available
Problem is combination of:
Problem is combination of:
Cost and availability of infrastructure
Cost and availability of infrastructure
Cost of vehicles
Cost of vehicles
Availability of other clean fuel options
Availability of other clean fuel options
Natural gas will be critical for fuel cell vehicles
Natural gas will be critical for fuel cell vehicles
First phase of fuel cell vehicles likely to depend
First phase of fuel cell vehicles likely to depend
on hydrogen from natural gas reformation
on hydrogen from natural gas reformation US Hybrid Market Development
US Hybrid Market Development
In 2000
In 2000
7,200 hybrid car registrations
7,200 hybrid car registrations
By 2005
By 2005
200,000 hybrid car registrations
200,000 hybrid car registrations
139% increase since 2004
139% increase since 2004
11 models available
11 models available
Still only 1.3 % of US car sales
Still only 1.3 % of US car sales
Introduced to US in 1999, 2000 during
controversy over California ZEV
mandate Why Hybrids?
Why Hybrids?
Problems:
Problems:
Price premium
Price premium
Only slows oil
Only slows oil
consumption growth
consumption growth
Holds gadget appeal
Green solution that seems painless (except for price)
Easy fuelling
Limited diesel passenger vehicle market in US
If fuel cells are the