nsition Office of the Presidents Commission on
Critical Infrastructure Protection and the Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office. Washington, D.C. July 1998).
For more information, please see <
URL
:http://www.ciao.gov/>.
B-iii
Contents
Section 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. B-1
1.1 Scope of the Infrastructure ............................................................................... B-1
1.1.1 Electric Power ..................................................................................... B-1
1.1.2 Oil and Natural Gas ............................................................................. B-2
1.2 Characterization of the Infrastructure .............................................................. B-3
1.2.1 Electric Power ..................................................................................... B-3
1.2.2 Oil and Natural Gas ............................................................................. B-5
1.3 Issues and Trends ............................................................................................. B-6
1.3.1 Electric Power ..................................................................................... B-6
1.3.2 Oil and Natural Gas ............................................................................... B-8
1.3.3 Challenges in the Energy Industry......................................................... B-8
1.3.4 Ultimate Energy Industry Configurations ............................................. B-9
Section 2 Threats and Vulnerabilities .......................................................................... B-11
2.1 Threats.............................................................................................................. B-11
2.2 Vulnerabilities .................................................................................................. B-13
2.2.1 Electric Power ..................................................................................... B-13
2.2.2 Oil and Gas.......................................................................................... B-14
Section 3 R&D Topics and Activities ........................................................................... B-17
3.1 Electric Power Systems.................................................................................... B-18
3.1.1 Real-time Control Mechanisms........................................................... B-18
3.1.2 Analysis of Scale and Complexity ...................................................... B-24
3.1.3 Vulnerability Assessment.................................................................... B-28
3.1.4 Information Assurance and Cyber Security......................................... B-31
3.1.5 Emergency Response and Recovery Information Technologies ......... B-39
3.1.6 Transmission and Distribution Technologies...................................... B-43
3.1.7 On-line Security Assessment............................................................... B-48
3.1.8 Dispersed Generation and Backup Infrastructures .............................. B-51
3.2 Oil and Natural Gas Systems ........................................................................... B-54
3.2.1 Critical Consequence Analysis............................................................ B-54
3.2.2 Decision Support Systems................................................................... B-56
3.2.3 Physical Protection Assessment .......................................................... B-63
3.2.4 Multisensor and Warning Technologies.............................................. B-65
3.2.5 Emergency Response Capability Enhancement .................................. B-68
3.2.6 Cyber Protection Enhancement ........................................................... B-70 Contents
B-iv
Contents (Cont.)
3.3 Joint Topics ...................................................................................................... B-74
3.3.1 Evaluation of Policy Effects ................................................................ B-74
3.3.2 Institutional Barriers............................................................................ B-77
3.3.3 Infrastructure Interdependencies ......................................................... B-80
3.4 Summary of Research Topics .......................................................................... B-83
Section 4 R&D Topic Roadmap................................................................................... B-91
Tables
B.1
Estimated Timeframe for Developing Real-time Control Technologies .......... B-25
B.2
Estimates of Timeframe and Cost for Information Assurance
and Cyber Security ............................................................................................ B-39
B.3
Assessment of the Complexity of Decision Analysis Models
by Industry Sector.............................................................................................. B-61
B.4
Summary of Research Topics ........................................................................... B-84
B.5
Summary of Funding Requirements by Research Topic................................... B-90
B.6
Summary of the Energy R&D Roadmap ........................................................... B-92
Figures
B.1
U.S. Bulk Electric Power System Interconnections
and Reliability Coordinators ............................................................................. B-4
B.2
Spectrum of National Security Preparedness and Government Roles
for the Electric Power System Infrastructure .................................................... B-40 B-1
Section 1
Introduction
The security, economic prosperity, and social well being of the United States
depend on a complex system of interdependent infrastructures. Their lifeblood is energy,
an infrastructure composed of industries that produce and distribute electric power, oil,
and natural gas.
1
Individuals and organizations in the United States spend approximately
$500 billion per year, or about 7.5% of the gross national product, on electricity and fuels.
Because specific complexities and characteristics of the electric power system (EPS)
infrastructure differ from those of the oil and gas transportation and storage infrastructure,
they are often described separately in this report.
1.1 Scope of the Infrastructure
1.1.1 Electric Power
The EPS infrastructure includes generation stations, transmission and distribution
networks, and transport and storage of fuel needed to make and supply reliable electricity
to customers at a reasonable cost. Electric utilities estimate that revenue from retail sales
of electricity totaled $208 billion in 1995. More than one-third of the nations primary
sources of energy (i.e., coal, oil, gas, nuclear) is consumed to generate electricity.
Without electric power, other critical infrastructures, such as telecommunications,
banking and finance, and segments of the transportation industry, could not function at an
acceptable level. For example, power outages affect virtually all modes of transportation,
including subways, elevators, and street traffic (e.g., traffic lights, gasoline pumps). Some
infrastructures have invested in backup generating equipment to minimize the impact of a
serious outage.
Consumers expect electricity to be available instantly at the flick of a switch.
Major outages, such as those in the western United States on July 2 and August 10, 1996
(which affected 7.5 million customers), led to follow-up investigations to pinpoint causes


1 Coal-related issues were not addressed directly, but Tab D, which discusses the transportation
infrastructure, covers many issues related to coal delivery. Introduction
B-2
and suggest responses to reduce the possibility of future outages. President Clinton noted
in his July 3, 1996, memo to the Secretary of Energy that the July 2 outage:
had a ripple effect as power stations across the vast grid automatically
shut down as the result of experiencing a surge. The outages caused
numerous problems in the region, including disruptions of train service,
traffic problems, loss of air conditioning, interruption of telephone service,
and interference with water supplies. A steady supply of power is a
vital factor in both the local and national economies and is essential for the
safety of all Americans.
An electrical outage can result in both direct impacts (e.g., malfunctioning alarm
systems) and indirect impacts (e.g., traffic accidents, looting). Analyses have shown that
electrical power outages incur substantial costs. The 1977 New York City outage affected
about 3 million customers and cost nearly $800 million (1995 dollars). Cost estimates
from the August 1996 outage in the western United States have ranged from $700 million
to $4 billion.
1.1.2 Oil and Natural Gas
Industry and consumers use petroleum as fuel and as lubrication for many modes
of transportation (e.g., automobiles, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, trains,
ships, aircraft) and industrial machinery. Petroleum products provide heat for residential,
industrial, and commercial buildings and for producing, processing, packaging,
distributing, and preparing food and food products. Petroleum also is used in the textile
and clothing industries to manufacture synthetic fabric, detergents, and dry-cleaning
solvents. Other uses for petroleum are with chemicals for cosmetics and pharmaceutical
products, and with plastics in manufactured produc