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Final 2008 RTP Aviation and Airport Ground Access Report
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS
RTP
Making the Connections
REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
2008 AV I AT I O N
Regional Aviation Challenges
1
Airport Opportunities
1
Airport Decentralization and Ground Access Strategy
3
Recent History of Regional Aviation Planning in the SCAG Region
4
Military Air Base and Air Cargo Planning in the 1990s
4
1998 Regional Transportation Plan
5
2001 Regional Transportation Plan
5
2004 Regional Transportation Plan
5
Regional Aviation Forecasts for the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan
6
Regional Aviation Policies
7
Aviation Guiding Principles
7
Aviation Action Steps
8
Aviation Demand Modeling and Forecasting for the 2008 RTP
8
Unconstrained Scenario
9
Constrained Scenario
9
Preferred Scenario
10
Air Cargo Forecasts
12
Airport Ground Access Element
12
Proles of Air Carrier Airports in the Region
13
Bob Hope Airport (BUR)
13
John Wayne Airport (SNA)
14
March Inland Port (MIP), IATA code is RIV
20
Ontario International Airport (ONT)
21
Palm Springs International Airport (PSP)
22
Palmdale Regional Airport (PMD)
23
San Bernardino International Airport (SBD)
26
Southern California Logistics Airport (VCV)
27
Airport Ground Access Element
28
1. Introduction/Purpose and Needs
28
2. Approach/Methodology
30
3. Modications to Ground Access Project Lists by Airport
37
4. Airport Ground Access Project Lists by Airport
39 A V I A T I O N A N D A I R P O R T G R O U N D A C C E S S R E P O R T
1
T
he SCAG Region supports the nations largest regional airport system
in terms of number of airports and aircraft operations, operating in a
very complex airspace environment. Exhibit 1 shows the SCAG re-
gional air carrier airport system. The system has six established air car-
rier airports including Los Angeles International (LAX), Bob Hope (formerly
Burbank), John Wayne, Long Beach, Ontario and Palm Springs. There are also
four new and emerging air carrier airports in the Inland Empire and North Los
Angeles County. These include San Bernardino International Airport (former-
ly Norton AFB), March Inland Port (joint use with March Air Reserve Base),
Southern California Logistics Airport (formerly George AFB) and Palmdale Air-
port (joint use with Air Force Plant 42). The regional system also includes 45
general aviation airports and two commuter airports, for a total of 57 public
use airports. Detailed proles of the air carrier airports in the region can be
found at the end of this chapter.
Southern California airports play a crucial role in international trade, par-
ticularly with Pacic Rim countries, and to the regional economy. The value
of airborne commodity exports out of the Los Angeles Customs District are
about equal to waterborne exports, and airborne export values would be sig-
nicantly greater if service exports, including impacts from tourism, were
added to total export values.
REGIONAL AVIATION CHALLENGES
There are signicant challenges in meeting the future airport capacity needs
of Southern California. Work on SCAGs 2004 Regional Transportation Plan
(RTP) concluded that an Aviation Decentralization Strategy is needed to meet
the forecast doubling of air passenger demand by 2030, from the current 90
million annual passengers (MAP) to 170 MAP. The four urban air carrier air-
ports in Los Angeles and Orange countiesLAX, Bob Hope, Long Beach and
John Wayneare all highly constrained. Their collective acreage amounts
to 5,540 acres, which is less than 17% of the 34,000 acres of Denver Interna-
tional, and less than the 7,700 acres of Chicago OHare. At 3,500 acres, LAX
is a very small international airport despite being the third busiest airport in
the country, and fth busiest in the world in terms of passengers served. All
of these urban airports have little room to expand because of severe encroach-
ment by surrounding communities. In addition, two of these airportsLong
Beach and John Waynehave strict limits on allowable ights that are legally
enforceable (one is a city ordinance and the other a court settlement agree-
ment) since they predate the Federal Airport Noise and Capacity Act of 1990
(ANCA).
The challenge of regional aviation demand in Southern California is not lim-
ited to just the SCAG region. It is estimated that 15 to 20 percent of San
Diegos air passengers and 2/3 of its air cargo is currently served by SCAG re-
gion airports because of inadequate airport capacity in San Diego. More than
40 commuter ights a day originate in San Diego County and land at LAX,
because of inadequate long-haul and international service in San Diego. This
places additional burdens on the limited runway capacity of LAX. San Diego
International Airport is rapidly approaching its physical capacity constraint of
23 MAP, and a recent effort by the San Diego County Regional Airport Author-
ity to nd a new replacement airport was not successful. If San Diego does not
solve its looming airport capacity problem, it will make the problem in the
SCAG Region much worse.
AIRPORT OPPORTUNITIES
Fortunately, the region has available capacity to serve future demand at the
new and emerging suburban airports in the Inland Empire (San Bernardino
and Riverside counties) and North Los Angeles County. Ontario International
Airport can accommodate up to 30 MAP (currently at 7.2 MAP) and help re-
lieve LAX by becoming the regions second major international airport. Palm-
dale Airport, San Bernardino International, March Inland Port, and Southern
California Logistics not only have ample available capacity, but can serve fu-
ture demand with far fewer environmental impacts compared to the highly
constrained urban airports. These airports can also serve future demand with
relatively modest capital investments since they have much of the essential
infrastructure already in place. 2

A V I A T I O N A N D A I R P O R T G R O U N D A C C E S S R E P O R T
EXHIBIT 1
SCAG REGION REGIONAL AIR CARRIER SYSTEM
Source: Southern California Association of Governments, ESRI StreetMap USA, Teleatlas A V I A T I O N A N D A I R P O R T G R O U N D A C C E S S R E P O R T
3
The 2004 RTP estimates that investments at the four new and emerging air-
ports, needed to accommodate the forecast demand of 170 MAP, total about
$4 billion in improvements. Adding needed investments at the other airports
in the system (but not LAX), the required capital requirements at region air-
ports total about $6.3 billion. This is a modest sum for serving an 80 MAP
increase in demand over the next 25 years, compared to the exorbitant cost of
building new airports to accommodate this demand.
The primary challenge of decentralizing demand to these airports relates to
the fact that the core of aviation demand will continue to reside in the ur-
ban areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties. The greatest population and
employment growth over the next 25 years is forecast to occur in the Inland
Empire. The region is forecast to grow at a 1.25% annual growth rate as it
adds about seven million people over from 2000 to 2035 (reaching a total
of 23.5 million). Riverside and San Bernardino counties are forecast to grow
by 3.4% and 1.9%, respectively, while Los Angeles and Orange counties will
add population at rates less than 1%. The Inland Empire will also add jobs at
signicantly higher rates than the regional average.
However, by 2035 the bulk of future aviation demand (82%) will still remain
in Los Angeles and Orange counties (currently 90% of total regional demand).
The main reason for this is that Los Angeles and Orange counties will con-
tinue to generate higher rates of air passenger trips per capita compared to
the rest of the region. Their high trip propensities relate to greater levels of
disposable income, and high concentrations of activities that greatly depend
on air travel. These activities include international trade, tourism, entertain-
ment, business services and high technology.
AIRPORT DECENTRALIZATION AND GROUND ACCESS STRATEGY
The future challenge of meeting future aviation demand in the SCAG Region
is inextricably tied to airport ground access, since in order to meet that de-
mand the region will need to get future air passengers from the urban areas
of Los Angeles and Orange counties to available airport capacity in the Inland
Empire and North Los Angeles County. The challenge is complicated by the
fact that the regional roadway system will be become increasingly unreliable,
with daily delay on the system expected to more than double. This will place
a great burden on the air traveler, who will have to allow for more time to
get to the airport to catch his or her ight. It will make it difcult to expand
the new airports with available capacity, since until they fully mature they
will have few alternative ights to offer air travelers who miss their ights
because of unreliable ground access. Unless the regional airport ground access
system is substantially improved, many potential air travelers will choose not
to y at all, which will translate to substantial economic loss to the region.
The 2004 RTP estimates that a constrained 2030 regional airport system with
conservative assumptions about future airport ground access improvements
translates to a loss of $18 billion and 131,000 jobs to the economy of So