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Many Faiths of Many Regions: Continuities and Changes Among Religious Adherents Across U.S. Counties
Many Faiths of Many
Regions

Continuities and Changes Among
Religious Adherents Across U.S.
Counties

CLIFFORD GRAMMICH

WR-211
December 2004

W O R K I N G
P A P E R

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is a registered trademark. Many Faiths of Many Regions: Continuities and Changes Among
Religious Adherents Across U.S. Counties
Clifford Grammich
Abstract

U.S. religious bodies continue to vary by their geographic distribution and their rates of
growth. The changing landscape of religious adherence has many implications for communities
on myriad issues (e.g., health, policy, social change). An examination of recently tabulated
county-level numbers of religious adherents shows Evangelical Protestants continuing to grow,
but at slower rates than that of the population. Mainline Protestants continue to decrease, even in
areas of some population growth. Catholics are increasing slightly, but likely only because of
Hispanic and immigrant population influxes. Precisely comparable trend data on total Jewish
population growth are not readily available, but there appears to have been a considerable
redistribution of the Jewish population in recent decades. Earlier county-level on other non-
Christian religions is not available, but recent data show Muslims concentrated in large
metropolitan counties and Eastern religious congregations concentrated in counties with Asian
populations. I examine these changes and distributions of religious populations in light of
existing theories that could account for these variations. The recent results confirm some of
these theories, but suggest further examination or possible modifications for others. Further
analysis of these data may also yield some insights on the interplay between political and
religious population change, as well as on efforts to meet social needs through faith-based
institutions.
Introduction
In recent years, religious bodies have varied widely in their rates of growth. Some
Christian religious bodies are encroaching on the traditional areas of others, and all face
encroachment from non-Christian bodies, as well as a growing number of persons not affiliated
with religious faith.
The growth and geographic redistribution of adherents to varying faiths reflects an
interplay of demographic processes with existing supply side influences. Through migration,
1 members of particular faiths have dispersed from former regional origins. Immigrant influx has
fueled numerical expansion of others. The regional distribution of religious groups also appears
to influence their growth (or lack thereof) in several ways.
The changing landscape of religious adherents has many implications for communities.
Past analyses of county and statewide distributions of religious adherence have been analyzed for
their influence on abortion rates and politics (Gober, 1994; Wetstein & Albritton, 1995;
OConnor & Berkman, 1995; Norrander & Wilcox, 1999; Tomal, 2001); crime rates (Olson,
1990; Kposowa, Breault, & Harrison, 1995); divorce rates (Breault & Kposowa, 1987; Sweezy
& Tiefenthaler, 1996); environmental policies (Lowry, 1998); income inequality (Partridge,
Partridge & Rickman, 1998); local public school expenditures (Husted & Kenny, 2000 and
2002), and suicide rates (Ellison, Burr & McCall, 1997; Burr, Hartman & Matteson, 1999). The
present religious landscape also appears to have considerable influence on voting and political
affiliations, and may affect efforts to meet social needs through faith-based institutions.
In this article, I use county-level data to explore recent change in populations of eight
groups of religious adherents across the United States and the compatibility of such change with
extant theories. The data portray diversity and the persistence of regional cultures and also the
changing fortunes of different groups. The analysis bears on existing theories that account for
contemporary change in populations of religious adherents, confirming some and suggesting
modifications to others.
The eight groups I examine are (1) Evangelical Protestants, (2) Mainline Protestants, (3)
Catholics, (4) Eastern (a.k.a. Orthodox) Christians, (5) Mormons, (6) Jews, (7) Muslims, and (8)
Other Faiths. In addition to exploring growth or loss among these groups, I review some
variations in these patterns. In documenting the most recent local changes and their
compatibility with extant theories, I hope to suggest future paths of research on populations of
religious adherents.
Background
Many explanations, some competing and some complementary, have been offered for
contemporary change in religious populations. Regarding change in Protestant populations,
some writers (e.g., Kelley, 1972; Roof & McKinney, 1987) have claimed comparative
Evangelical strictness in doctrine and practice has led to comparative growth, as the faithful
2 flock to and value most those bodies where adherence might be viewed as having higher (but not
unreasonable) costs and presumably corresponding benefits. Others (e.g., Shibley, 1996) suggest
that strictness, in itself, does not lead to Evangelical growth, but that such growth, particularly
outside the South, is more likely among churches that can adapt to local needs. Other more
general theories (e.g., Finke & Stark, 1992) focus not as much on theology as on religious market
innovation. One demographic explanation (Stump, 1999) suggests theologically conservative
churches are better positioned in areas of population growth.
Conversely, one recent analysis (Hout & Fischer, 2002) of religious populations suggests
losses stemming from demographic variables (e.g., growth among populations such as young
adults who traditionally have lower levels of religious adherence) and political variables (e.g.,
disaffiliation in the wake of growing politicization of a religious body). Many also point to
growing secularization, i.e., an indifference to or rejection of religion, as a possible cause for
decreasing populations of religious adherents, though measuring such a universal variable on a
local level such as counties is difficult if not impossible. (In addition, Chaves, 1994, notes
secularization if viewed not as a decline not of religion but of the scope of religious authority can
be compatible with stable religious adherence.)
Data
To examine the most recent changes in religious populations on a local level, I use the
most recent data on religious populations from the Association of Statisticians of American
Religious Bodies (ASARB). Coinciding with the decennial federal census, the ASARB compiles
self-reported county-level enumerations of religious congregations and their adherents in the
United States. Religious Congregations and Membership in the United States (RCMUS 2000) is
the fifth in a series of such studies dating from the 1950s (Whitman & Trimble, 1956; Johnson,
Picard & Quinn, 1974; Quinn et al., 1982; Bradley et al., 1992; Jones et al., 2002). The series
provides rich detail on religious populations in communities of varying sizes and for religious
bodies of all sizes. The data have long been recognized for their consistency and validity.
The 2000 enumeration includes tabulations of religious congregations (e.g., churches,
synagogues, mosques, or temples) and adherents (i.e., full members, their children, and other
participants not considered members). The proportion of the total population represented in the
3 study, 50.2 percent, is within the range of previous studies representing 47 to 55 percent of the
population.
The series has certain limitations. The data refer to participating bodies only, not all
religious adherents in the United States. It is impossible to determine the exact level of coverage
of all religious adherents, given the unknown size of that population. Some evidence suggests
that the number of adherents reported in 2000 represents nearly two-thirds of the population of
religious adherents. (Kosmin, Mayer & Keysar report that 80 percent of U.S. adults claimed
religious affiliation in 2001. Davis & Smith, annual, report that 85 percent of U.S. adults
claimed religious affiliation in 2000. Research by Cieslak, 1995, indicates that, at least in the
case of the Catholic Church, survey estimates of religious adherence may overstate actual
adherence by at least one-tenth.)
The series undercounts particular groups (e.g., predominantly African American religious
bodies) and regions. This problem may have diminished over time. An evaluation of the series
through 1990 noted that while the effort originally was met with some skepticism about how
reliably religious institutions assemble their statistics[,] it is now clear that these [data] offer a